Updated daily · S&P 500 valuation since 1881

Shiller CAPE Ratio Today

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio compares the S&P 500 with ten years of inflation-adjusted profits. It is the long-run valuation gauge Robert Shiller made famous in 2000, and the yardstick a 2026 working paper by a Federal Reserve Board economist re-examined.

S&P 500 CAPE ratio

40.9

Higher than 99% of months since 1881 · 130.0% above the 17.8 average

Avg 17.8 Low 4.8 · Dec 1920High 44.2 · Dec 1999

S&P 500 close7,765.36October 8, 2026

10-year average real earnings$190Per index share, in Oct 2026 dollars

Cyclically adjusted earnings yield2.44%1 ÷ CAPE

Yield gap over 10-year TIPS−0.48%vs 2.92% real yield, October 7, 2026

Daily estimate: the latest S&P 500 close divided by the average of the last 120 months of S&P 500 earnings, each restated in Oct 2026 dollars. Shiller’s own monthly figure for Oct 2026 is 40.7; his uses that month’s average price rather than one day’s close.

What would it take?

CAPE at a different S&P 500 level

Hold today’s ten-year earnings average fixed and change the index level. With current earnings, the S&P 500 would sit near 3,377 at the long-run average CAPE of 17.8. In practice earnings also grow, so a lower ratio can arrive through rising profits rather than falling prices.

Monthly history

Jan 1881 to Oct 2026

Robert Shiller’s monthly CAPE series, which uses each month’s average S&P 500 price. The ratio spent most of the 20th century between 10 and 20, then moved to a higher range from the mid-1990s.

Monthly observationsShiller CAPE ratio, S&P 500

Price ÷ 10-year average real earnings

Start18.5Jan 1881

Peak44.2Dec 1999

Latest40.7Oct 2026

Turning points in the CAPE ratio
Month	CAPE	Context
Dec 1920	4.8	Post-World War I inflation and the 1920–21 slump; the record low
Sep 1929	32.6	Peak before the 1929 crash
Jun 1932	5.6	Great Depression low
Jan 1966	24.1	1960s peak, before a decade of high inflation
Jul 1982	6.6	After the 1970s inflation, just before the 1980s bull market
Dec 1999	44.2	Dot-com bubble; the all-time high
Mar 2009	13.3	Global financial crisis low
Nov 2021	38.6	Post-pandemic peak, before the 2022 bear market
Oct 2026	40.7	Latest monthly reading

Every year since 1881 (last month of each year)

Month	CAPE
Oct 2026	40.7
Dec 2025	39.6
Dec 2024	37.7
Dec 2023	31.4
Dec 2022	28.3
Dec 2021	38.3
Dec 2020	33.8
Dec 2019	30.3
Dec 2018	28.3
Dec 2017	32.1
Dec 2016	27.9
Dec 2015	26.0
Dec 2014	26.8
Dec 2013	24.9
Dec 2012	21.2
Dec 2011	20.5
Dec 2010	22.4
Dec 2009	20.3
Dec 2008	15.4
Dec 2007	26.0
Dec 2006	27.3
Dec 2005	26.4
Dec 2004	27.1
Dec 2003	26.6
Dec 2002	23.1
Dec 2001	30.5
Dec 2000	37.3
Dec 1999	44.2
Dec 1998	38.8
Dec 1997	33.0
Dec 1996	27.7
Dec 1995	25.0
Dec 1994	19.9
Dec 1993	21.2
Dec 1992	20.4
Dec 1991	18.4
Dec 1990	15.8
Dec 1989	17.6
Dec 1988	14.7
Dec 1987	13.4
Dec 1986	14.1
Dec 1985	11.7
Dec 1984	9.6
Dec 1983	9.8
Dec 1982	8.5
Dec 1981	7.8
Dec 1980	9.4
Dec 1979	8.8
Dec 1978	9.0
Dec 1977	9.7
Dec 1976	11.6
Dec 1975	10.3
Dec 1974	8.3
Dec 1973	13.5
Dec 1972	18.6
Dec 1971	16.6
Dec 1970	15.9
Dec 1969	17.3
Dec 1968	22.3
Dec 1967	21.8
Dec 1966	19.7
Dec 1965	23.7
Dec 1964	22.8
Dec 1963	21.0
Dec 1962	18.6
Dec 1961	22.0
Dec 1960	17.6
Dec 1959	18.6
Dec 1958	17.4
Dec 1957	13.7
Dec 1956	17.2
Dec 1955	18.9
Dec 1954	15.8
Dec 1953	11.8
Dec 1952	12.9
Dec 1951	12.2
Dec 1950	11.3
Dec 1949	10.5
Dec 1948	10.2
Dec 1947	10.7
Dec 1946	11.4
Dec 1945	15.0
Dec 1944	11.6
Dec 1943	10.7
Dec 1942	9.6
Dec 1941	10.1
Dec 1940	13.9
Dec 1939	16.3
Dec 1938	15.8
Dec 1937	13.0
Dec 1936	21.1
Dec 1935	16.2
Dec 1934	11.6
Dec 1933	12.3
Dec 1932	8.3
Dec 1931	9.3
Dec 1930	16.1
Dec 1929	22.0
Dec 1928	25.3
Dec 1927	18.6
Dec 1926	13.0
Dec 1925	11.2
Dec 1924	9.3
Dec 1923	7.8
Dec 1922	8.0
Dec 1921	6.1
Dec 1920	4.8
Dec 1919	6.2
Dec 1918	6.1
Dec 1917	6.4
Dec 1916	11.4
Dec 1915	12.9
Dec 1914	10.2
Dec 1913	11.2
Dec 1912	13.4
Dec 1911	13.9
Dec 1910	13.7
Dec 1909	14.8
Dec 1908	14.6
Dec 1907	11.3
Dec 1906	17.7
Dec 1905	19.6
Dec 1904	18.2
Dec 1903	16.0
Dec 1902	19.6
Dec 1901	21.7
Dec 1900	20.7
Dec 1899	18.5
Dec 1898	21.4
Dec 1897	18.8
Dec 1896	16.5
Dec 1895	16.6
Dec 1894	16.7
Dec 1893	15.6
Dec 1892	18.0
Dec 1891	18.2
Dec 1890	14.4
Dec 1889	16.6
Dec 1888	14.9
Dec 1887	15.5
Dec 1886	18.2
Dec 1885	16.3
Dec 1884	13.4
Dec 1883	14.9
Dec 1882	15.4
Dec 1881	16.0

Robert Shiller: U.S. stock price, earnings, and CPI data FRED: S&P 500 daily close (SP500)FRED: 10-year TIPS real yield (DFII10)

Sources linkedPrice date shownUpdated dailyNot investment advice

How it works

What the CAPE ratio measures

An ordinary price-to-earnings ratio divides the index by one year of profits. In a recession profits can collapse, so the ratio spikes just when stocks are cheapest; it reached 123.7 in 2009. John Campbell and Robert Shiller’s fix, published in 1988 and popularized in Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance, divides by the average of the previous ten years of earnings instead.

Inflation is built into the calculation. Each month’s price and earnings are first converted into today’s dollars with the Consumer Price Index, so a 1970s dollar of profit and a 2020s dollar are compared in the same purchasing power:

CAPE = S&P 500 price ÷ CPI_now-adjusted average of 120 months of earnings

Inflation and valuations

Stocks have been most expensive when inflation was low but positive, and cheapest at either extreme. Using Shiller’s data since 1881, months when trailing 12-month CPI inflation ran 0% to 3% saw an average CAPE of 20.8. When it ran above 6%, the average fell to 12.7, and in deflation it was 15.1. High inflation pushes up interest rates and makes future profits harder to value, so investors demand a higher earnings yield; deflation has usually arrived with depressions. The July 1982 low of 6.6 followed a decade in which inflation twice topped 10%.

Average CAPE by trailing 12-month CPI inflation, 1881 to Oct 2026
Inflation rate	Average CAPE	Months
Below 0% (deflation)	15.1	339
0% to 3%	20.8	689
3% to 6%	19.1	394
Above 6%	12.7	328

Why the ratio has stayed high since the 1990s

The CAPE ratio has averaged far above its 20th-century norm for three decades. Commonly cited reasons include lower interest rates, more profit returned through buybacks rather than dividends, and an index more heavily weighted to technology. A 2026 working paper by Federal Reserve Board economist Dino Palazzo adds an accounting explanation: since 1974 companies must expense research spending immediately, and since the mid-1990s they book more one-time write-downs, both of which shrink reported earnings. Its corrected measure, CAPE-H, averaged 19.3 after 1991 against 27.6 for the traditional ratio, and it forecast five-year returns much better. By late 2025, though, both measures were above their 97th historical percentiles. Read how R&D accounting distorts P/E ratios for the mechanics.

What it does and does not predict

Valuation ratios have a respectable record for ten-year average returns and almost none for the next few months. A high reading lowers the expected long-run return and raises the odds of a poor multi-year stretch; it does not set a date. Compare long-run outcomes across stocks, bonds, gold, and cash after inflation on the market returns page, or see what inflation does to cash on the live inflation clock.

Educational data, not investment advice. Methodology · Report a correction.

Questions

Shiller CAPE ratio FAQ

What is the Shiller CAPE ratio today?

The Shiller CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 is about 40.9 based on the October 8, 2026 close of 7,765.36. That is higher than 99% of monthly readings since 1881 and 130.0% above the long-run average of 17.8.

What is a normal CAPE ratio?

Since 1881 the CAPE ratio has averaged 17.8 with a median of 16.6. Since 1995 it has been below 20 in only 19 of 382 months, all between Oct 2008 and Sep 2011, which is why some economists argue the old average is no longer the right benchmark, while others read the higher plateau as lasting overvaluation.

What was the highest CAPE ratio ever?

The monthly record is 44.2 in Dec 1999, at the height of the dot-com bubble. The September 1929 peak before the crash was about 32.6.

Does a high CAPE mean the stock market will crash?

No. A high CAPE has historically been followed by lower average returns over the next ten years, but it says little about the next few months, and the market stayed expensive by this measure for most of 2011 to 2020 while prices more than doubled. A 2026 working paper by a Federal Reserve Board economist argues accounting changes inflated the ratio during that decade, and that its corrected version now also shows elevated valuations.

How is the CAPE ratio different from the P/E ratio?

An ordinary P/E divides the price by one year of earnings, so it jumps around in recessions when profits collapse. CAPE divides by the average of ten years of earnings, each converted into today’s dollars with the Consumer Price Index, which smooths out the business cycle and inflation.

How often is this page updated?

The S&P 500 level refreshes every day from the official close published by FRED, usually one business day behind. The ten-year earnings average changes slowly and comes from Robert Shiller’s monthly data, currently through Jun 2026.