Consumer confidence
September 2026 consumer confidence falls: where inflation fits
Consumer confidence fell to 81.9 in September. Learn what the survey measures and why confidence, inflation, and spending can move differently.
What changed in the September 29 release
The Conference Board release reports a 6.7-point decline. Its present-situation index fell to 109.3 and its expectations index fell to 63.6. The preliminary survey covered September 1–23. These are index readings, not percentages of Americans, and should not be read as a 6.7% fall in household income.
Where price concerns enter the story
The organization’s September 29 discussion connects consumer caution with financial well-being and inflation concerns. The survey also considers business and labor-market conditions. Inflation is one relevant factor; these results alone do not isolate its causal share of the decline.
Why slower inflation can coexist with frustration
A hypothetical basket rising from $100 to $120 remains expensive even if the next year’s increase is only 2%. It would then cost $122.40. A household thinking about its old $100 budget may feel squeezed despite the slower rate. That example illustrates why the level of prices and the speed of price increases answer different questions.
Confidence is not the same as actual spending
Attitudes, purchases, and income are separate observations. People still need essentials when they feel pessimistic, and spending can be supported by savings or borrowing. The confidence survey does not tell you which mechanism funded any particular purchase. Avoid treating a sentiment reading as a direct count of transactions or an official recession announcement.
A useful household response
Compare this year’s bills with last year’s equivalent purchases and then compare that change with take-home income. Changes in quantities or lifestyle should be recorded separately. Our personal inflation guide provides a worked budget example, while inflation versus recession explains why weak confidence does not by itself diagnose a contraction.